The Interpretability Layer for Prediction Markets

From Market Outputs
to Understanding

Polarity treats prediction markets as dynamic information systems. Observe, analyze, and interpret belief dynamics without execution bias.

Analytics for every strategy

Your key market insights, powered by Polarity's interpretative layer.

Market State Analytics

Real-time structure

Visualize the invisible forces shaping consensus. Move beyond simple prices to understand structural market dynamics with probability density and localized variance.

Probability density function visualization
Volume-weighted sentiment tracking
Cross-market arbitrage detection
Volatility Agent
Tracks localized variance
Trend Agent
Identifies momentum shifts
Arb Agent
Spots discrepancies

Comprehensive Analysis Infrastructure

Polarity treats prediction markets as rigorous information systems, providing the tooling required to interpret belief dynamics without execution bias.

Market State Analytics

Detailed representations of probability curves, volume distribution, and uncertainty persistence across time.

Historical Analysis

Full market lifecycle reconstruction compared to real-time snapshots, enabling longitudinal belief study.

A
B

Cross-Market Comparison

Standardized schemas to compare volatility, participation, and liquidity across differing events.

Timeline Mapping

Align probability movements with real-world news and milestones to reduce interpretive ambiguity.

AI Interpretation

Natural-language summaries and context for probability shifts, acting as an interpretive interface.

{
  "market": "fed-rates",
  "prob": 0.85,
  "delta": +0.12
}

Developer APIs

Structured programmatic access for external research, educational tools, and dataset exports.

Vision & Mission

Building the Future of
Market Intelligence

Prediction markets capture how groups think—but rarely explain how that thinking changes. Polarity provides a neutral lens for examining, measuring, and comparing these transitions.

Neutral Analytical Standard

Establish the definitive open standard for understanding belief dynamics in decentralized prediction markets.

Research Infrastructure

Power the next generation of economic, social, and collective intelligence research through prediction market data.

Community-Driven Evolution

Enable researchers, developers, and analysts to shape the future of prediction market analytics.

Our Mission

Enable transparent interpretation of prediction-market data

Reduce cognitive and technical barriers to market analysis

Provide explainability tools that prioritize clarity over persuasion

Support researchers, developers, and advanced users with neutral analytics

The protocol is intentionally non-promotional, non-executing, and non-advisory—reinforcing its role as an observer rather than a participant in market dynamics.

The Interpretability Gap

Prediction markets align consensus, but they rarely explain why it shifts.

Interpretation Gap

Market interfaces optimize for immediacy, leaving limited room for deep analysis.

Siloed Data

Data is fragmented across chains and markets, making comparison impossible.

Lack of Narrative

Raw probabilities don't reveal structural forces or sentiment shifts behind the numbers.

Polarity AI

Interpretive Layer
Not an Oracle

SUMMARIZATION

Natural language summaries of market evolution.

U
UserNow
Why did the probability for 'Fed Cut' spike?
PolarityNow
CPI data released at 8:30am showed lower than expected inflation, triggering a 15% increase in cut probability.
CONTEXTUALIZATION

Explain movements within broader behavior.

U
User10:15 am
Is this liquidity shift normal?
Polarity10:16 am
No. This volume pattern deviates 2σ from historical averages for similar election markets.
ANOMALY DETECTION

Highlight unusual data patterns.

Scanning Polymarket liquidity...
Wash trading pattern detected
Development Timeline

Protocol Roadmap

Indicative milestones for establishing Polarity as the standard for prediction market analytics.

Phase 1

Analytics Foundation

In Progress

Establishing stable, transparent analytical foundation for market observation.

  • Reliable data ingestion from Polymarket APIs
  • Market state reconstruction & analytics
  • Baseline dashboards for probability visualization
  • Initial access coordination mechanisms
Phase 2

AI Interpretation

Upcoming

Reducing cognitive overhead with AI-assisted behavior summarization.

  • AI-assisted summarization of market behavior
  • Event-aligned timeline mapping
  • Cross-market comparison tooling
  • Enhanced historical analytics
Phase 3

Governance & APIs

Upcoming

Community-informed prioritization and developer extensibility.

  • Governance signaling mechanisms ($POLAR)
  • Modular feature extensions
  • Developer-facing APIs and documentation
  • Integration of additional data sources
Phase 4

Research Ecosystem

Upcoming

Long-term infrastructure for studying belief dynamics.

  • Advanced belief-dynamics modeling
  • Dataset export for academic research
  • Experimental visualization frameworks
  • Tooling for large-scale comparative studies

*From Polarity Protocol Roadmap 2025-2026. Read technical documentation

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Polarity

Ready to decode the market?

Stop guessing. Start understanding. Join the community of researchers and analysts using Polarity to interpret belief dynamics.